【摘要】 目的探讨气象因素对沈阳城市居民死亡的影响,以便开展针对性的防控措施。方法收集2014年1月1日—2017年12月31日沈阳市五城区日死亡监测数据和气象监测数据,分析各气象因素与疾病日死亡人数的相关关系,评估气象要素对居民死亡的影响,并构建回归方程进行预警预测。结果 2014—2017年沈阳市五城区居民死亡132 327例,日均死亡人数为90.6人;传染病和寄生虫、损伤和中毒日均死亡人数与所有气象因素均无相关性;全死因日均死亡人数与气压呈正相关(r=0.277,P<0.01),与气温(r=-0.301,P<0.01)、日照时数(r=-0.072,P<0.05)、蒸发量(r=-0.241,P<0.01)及水气压(r=-0.342,P<0.01)呈负相关;后退法多因素回归分析发现大风(β=0.063,P<0.05)和低温(β=-0.387,P<0.01)天气会造成死亡人数显著上升,低温对循环系统疾病和呼吸系统疾病死亡的影响尤为明显,回归系数分别为-0.254和-0.356(均P<0.01);水汽压与呼吸系统疾病死亡的回归系数为正(β=0.193,P<0.01),与循环系统疾病和内分泌及代谢类疾病死亡负相关,回归系数分别为-0.232和-0.201。结论低温、高湿、大风会导致循环系统疾病死亡和呼吸系统疾病死亡显著增加,气象因素是影响2014—2017年沈阳市城市居民死亡的重要因素。更多还原

【Abstract】 Objective To explore the influence of meteorological factors on mortality of urban residents in Shenyang City, so as to carry out targeted prevention and control measures. Methods Daily mortality monitoring data and meteorological monitoring data in five urban districts of Shenyang City from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2017 were collected to analyze the correlation between meteorological factors and the daily number of death, and to evaluate the impact of meteorological factors on the deaths of residents.The regression equation was established for early warning and prediction. Results Totally 132 327 death cases were reported in five urban areas of Shenyang City from 2014-2017, and the average daily death toll was 90.6. There was no significant correlation between the daily death toll of infectious diseases, parasites, injuries, poisoning and all meteorological factors. Average daily death toll of all-cause was positively correlated with air pressure(r=0.277, P<0.01), and negatively correlated with temperature(r=-0.301, P<0.01), sunshine hours(r=-0.072, P<0.05), evaporation(r=-0.241, P<0.01), and water pressure(r=-0.342,P <0.01). Multivariate backward regression analysis found that high wind(β =0.063, P <0.05) and low temperature(β =-0.387,P<0.01) would cause a significant increase in the number of deaths. The effect of hypothermia on the mortality of circulatory and respiratory diseases WAS particularly evident, and the regression coefficients were respectively-0.254 and-0.356(both P<0.01).Water vapor pressure was positively correlated with death of respiratory diseases(β=0.193, P<0.01), and negatively correlated with death of circulatory diseases, endocrine, and metabolic diseases, the regression coefficients were-0.232 and-0.201 respectively. Conclusion Low temperature, high humidity and high wind lead to a significant increase in the death of circulatory system diseases and respiratory system diseases. Meteorological factors are important factors affecting the death of urban residents in Shenyang City from 2014-2017.更多还原