【摘要】 为了研究地震等灾变性事件对于消费品产业链内价格传递和市场的影响,本文利用从2008年2月至2009年3月四川省江油市畜产业链进行实证研究,使用向量纠错模型(VECM)和历史分解图(HDG)分析了价格调整的动态效果和沿产业链的因果关系。结果表明,价格的调整关于速度和大小都是不对称的,外生震荡对于该产业链的不同层面产生不同影响,导致价格差益的扩大和价格不完全传递。该方法能够有效地分析灾变事件条件下消费品产业链内价格波及效应问题。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to investigate the effect of such catastrophic events as earthquake on the price transfer and market in the consumable industry chain,the paper illustrates with the livestock industry chain from February 2008 to March 2009 in disaster area-Jiangyou,Sichuan and uses vector error correction model(VECM) and its historical decomposition graph(HDG) to analyze the dynamical adjustment of price and the causality along the industry chain.The result shows that price adjustment is asymmetric in both speed and magnitude,and reveals a differential impact of the exogenous shock on differential levels,and thus leads to wide price margins and imperfect price transmission.The approach can effectively analyze the issue of price ripple effect on consumable industry chain incurred by catastrophic events.更多还原