【摘要】 畜禽禁养政策对于调控畜禽产业布局、强化畜禽污染防治及促进畜禽产业绿色可持续发展具有重要意义。然而,禁养区养殖户如何优化替代生计策略?畜禽禁养政策对养殖户家庭收入产生怎样影响?学术界对此鲜有研究。本文基于河北、河南和湖北生猪养殖密集地区364户养殖户数据,运用Probit模型和粗略精确匹配法(CEM)探讨畜禽禁养政策对养殖户替代生计策略的影响及不同生计策略下的家庭收入效应,并运用定性与定量混合研究方法(MM)对模型估计结果进行解释。研究发现:①禁养区养殖户选择商业经营和外出务工的概率分别提高32.70%和28.20%,选择畜禽养殖的概率下降71.10%,但畜禽禁养政策对养殖户从事农业种植的影响不显著;②畜禽禁养政策提高了禁养区养殖户的商业经营和外出务工收入,分别增加2.191万元和1.202万元,但养殖户家庭总收入和人均收入水平显著降低,分别减少2.305万元和0.461万元/人;③畜禽禁养政策拉大了禁养区和非禁养区养殖户之间的家庭总收入和人均收入差距,替代生计策略并没有维持禁养区养殖户原有的生计水平。因此,政府在畜禽禁养政策优化、圈舍土地复垦及产业转型引导等方面予以调控具有必要性和紧迫性。更多还原

【Abstract】 The policy of prohibiting livestock and poultry production is of great significance for regulating the spatial distribution of livestock and poultry industry, strengthening the prevention and control of livestock and poultry pollution, and promoting green and sustainable development of the livestock and poultry industry. However, how to optimize alternative livelihood strategies for farmers in the prohibited farming areas has been a challenge, and it is not clear what impacts this policy has on family income. Little research has been done to address these issues. Using the data collected at 364 pig farms in Hebei, Henan, and Hubei provinces and the Probit model and Coarsened Exact Matching(CEM), this study explored the effect of the policy on alternative livelihood strategies and family income of the farming households. This study also used qualitative and quantitative research methods to explain the model results. The study found that:(1) Farmers in the prohibited area choosing business operation and working as migrant workers increased by32.70% and 28.20%. Farmers who chose livestock and poultry farming decreased by 71.10%, but the effect of the policy on farmers’ participation in agricultural planting was not significant;(2)The policy raised the income of farmers in the prohibited area engaged in business operation and working as migrant workers, which increased by 22 thousand and 12 thousand yuan respectively.However, total income and per capita income of farmers in the prohibited area decreased significantly, by 23 thousand and 4.6 thousand yuan respectively;(3) The policy widened the gap of family income and per capita income between farmers in the prohibited area and those in the non-prohibited area. Alternative livelihood strategies do not maintain the original livelihood level of farmers in the prohibited area. Therefore, it is necessary and urgent for the government to regulate the policy of prohibition, land reclamation of former animal farms, and industrial transformation.更多还原