【摘要】 建立了模拟单一潜在震源区地震孕育和发生的等效物理模型，给出了通过调整各次地震之间断层位移速率来拟合已有地震序列的方法。通过考虑模型参数的不确定性，提出了在未来一定年限内潜在震源区发生震级在不同震级段的概率预报方法。通过两种等效物理模型的对比，本文认为就工程地震危险性评定而言，可用简单的滑块－弹簧模型代替滑块－弹粘塑性模型更多还原

【Abstract】 Two equivalent physical models of the seismogeneration and seismocausality of single PSA are established.The method is suggested to fit the existent seismic series by adjusting the moving velocity of the fault in the recurrence interval.With considering the uncertainties of the parameters of the model,the authos propose a probability method for predicting the occurrence of earthquakes of different magnitude segment in the PSA in a certain future period.The comparison between the two models shows that the slider spring model can replace the slider elasticviscoplastic model.更多还原