【摘要】 在灾害的综合研究中,自然灾害风险评价是灾害研究的一个热点领域。对自然灾害进行准确的趋势判断,其理论和现实意义重大。利用可公度信息提取方法和蝴蝶结构图法对1900年以来印度尼西亚Ms≥7.8的强震进行了分析,认为印度尼西亚在2014年强震信号较强,有可能发生较大震级的地震。将地震对称性的空间表象、动力学基础及其物理机理进行有机的结合可以作为地震趋势判断的依据,为后续研究提供一些启示。更多还原

【Abstract】 In comprehensive research of disasters,risk assessment of natural disaster is a hot spot.Correct tendency judgement on natural disasters is of great theoretical and actual significance.In this study,the methods of commensurable information extraction and butterfly structure diagram were used to analyze the Ms≥7.8 strong earthquakes happened in Indonesia since the year 1990.An organic combination of spatial expression,dynamics foundation and physical mechanism of earthquake can be taken as a judgement basis for earthquake tendency to provide some inspiration for follow-up research.更多还原