【摘要】 云南是一个地震活动区。1985年4月18日云南禄劝6.1级地震后,详细分析了云南大地震与云南天文台天文时纬残差的关系,发现在云南及其邻近发生大地震以前均存在着时纬残差异常。总结了震前云南天文台时纬残差异常的特征和规律,并在几次大地震前提供了预测信息。天文时纬残差是从时间与纬度的观测值中扣除地球整体运动影响之后的剩余部分,它是一个与当地地球物理场变化有关的量,包括铅垂线变化。震前地震孕育过程中震区地下物质的运动可能是形成天文时纬残差异常的主要原因,所以,它可用于监测台站周围的重力场变化。2003年7月21日大姚6.2级地震与2007年6月3日普洱6.4级地震前,云南天文台的时纬残差均出现了明显的同步异常,这再次说明这种异常可用于天文台周围的强震预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 Yunnan is a seismic active region.After the earthquake of Ms 6.1 occurred in Luquan County,Yunnan Province on April 18,1985,we analysed in detail the relationship between the major earthquakes and the astronomical time-latitude residuals(ATLR) of Yunnan Observatory.It was found that there appear the anomalies of the ATLR before the earthquakes which happened in and around Yunnan.Based on the study the anomalous characters and laws of the ATLR of Yunnan Observatory before earthquake were summarized,and provided better prewarning information for a few major earthquakes.ATLR are the rest after deducting the effects of Earth’s whole motion from the observations of time and latitude.They are quantities relating to the changes in the local geophysical field,including the plumb line variation(PLV).The motion of the groundmass in a seismic region during the pregnancy of earthquakes may be the main reason of the anomaly of the PLV.Therefore it can be used for monitoring the change in gravity field around the Observatory.There appeared the significant synchronous anomalies of the ATLR of Yunnan Observatory before the earthquakes of magnitude 6.2 in Dayao County,Yunnan Province,on July 21,2003 and of magnitude 6.4 in Linger County of Puer,Yunnan Province,on June 3,2007.It has been again verified that the anomalies can be used for the prediction of the strong earthquakes around the observatory.更多还原