【摘要】 全面分析了20世纪发生于中国大陆的7.0级以上大地震与天文因素的关系,分析结果表明,20世纪中国大陆71%的大地震发生于月亮轨道(白道)与赤道交角变小的阶段,这说明月亮轨道运行至这一位置时将会是中国地震的活跃期。太阳活动及地球自转亦均与中国大地震的发生密切相关,太阳活动的谷年普遍都有大地震发生;地球自转速度加快时大地震多,20世纪地球自转速度加快时段发生的大地震占72%。经互相关分析发现,中国大陆大震活动滞后于太阳黑子相对数峰年约6年,滞后于地球自转最快年约12年。文中最后根据目前月亮白赤交角的变化,以及太阳活动与地球自转预测中国大陆下一个大地震活动幕可能开始于2006年,并有可能延续至2015年。在此期间内,中国大陆将会有多个M≥7.0的地震发生。更多还原

【Abstract】 This paper analyses throughly the relationship between the astronomical factors and the earthquakes of M≥7.0 occurred in mainland of China during 20th century.The analysed results indicate that 71% of the earthquakes mentioned above occurred in the period when the inclination between moon’s path and the equator turns small.It shows that seismic active period in China will come when lunar orbit moves to these positions.The solar activity and(earth’s) rotation have a direct effect on the major seismic earthquakes in China.There are ordinarily the occurrence of the major eavents in the gorge year of the solar activity.There are more earthquakes when the(earth’s) rotation speeds.72% of the major earthquakes in 20th century occurred during the accelaration period of the(earth’s) rotation.By means of the correlation analysis it is found that major seismic activity in mainland of China has approximately a 6 years lag behind the year with peak value of the sunspot and a 12 years lag behind the year with earth’s fastest rotation.According to the situation of change of the inclination between the moon’s path and equator,solar activity and earth’s rotation at present,it is predicted that next curtain of the seisinic activity in mainland of China will probably start at AD 2006,and it may last to 2015.During this period many earthquakes of M≥7.0 will occure in mainland of China.更多还原