【摘要】 深入研究雷暴日数时空演变特征,对该区域灾害性天气的监测预测及防灾减灾具有应用价值。选用1981—2018年哈尔滨市13个台站逐年雷暴日数观测资料,采用EOF、小波分析等方法,研究雷暴日数时空变化规律。结果表明:哈尔滨市1981—2018年雷暴日数呈现显著减少趋势,倾向率为-0.31 d/10 a;雷暴日数周期变化不十分显著,存在28、4、9年主周期变化;雷暴日数的3个主要空间分布类型,主要为雷暴日数呈现"双曲抛物面"形状正向变化趋势,以双城—阿城—木兰和通河中部—依兰一线(西南—东北向)为轴,左抛物面,沿轴线向西南方向递增,右抛物面,沿轴线向东北方向递减,递增幅度大于递减幅度,均没形成闭合的低值区域,且等值线相对密集;可以为雷电灾害管理及预测预防提供参考依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 The study of temporal and spatial evolution of lightning days has application value to the monitoring and prediction of disastrous weather and disaster prevention and mitigation. Based on the daily data of lightning days from 13 meteorological stations in Harbin from 1981 to 2018, the EOF and wavelet analysis were used to examine the temporal-spatial variation of lightning days in Harbin. The results showed that lightning days decreased significantly since 1981, which had a decreasing rate of-0.31 d/10 a. There were 3 periodic changes of scales in lightning days, which were 28 years, 4 years and 9 years, but non-significant cycle change. The spatial distribution of lightning days were mainly"hyperbolic paraboloid"shape and positive change trend, it was a line of the Shuangcheng—Acheng—Mulan and the middle of Tonghe—Yilan as the axis(southwest—northeast), the left paraboloid increased along the axis to the southwest, the right paraboloid decreased along the axis to the northeast, the range of left paraboloid was greater than the right paraboloid, and it was an unclosed low-value region with relatively dense contours. The study could provide references for lightning disaster management, prediction and prevention.更多还原