【摘要】 为研究淮南1956—2017年暖冬事件变化特征及与当年汛期降水的关系,更好地服务当地冬季农业生产、防灾减灾及汛期降水预测等工作,笔者利用淮南观测站1956—2017年冬季气温资料,采用线性趋势分析等统计方法进行气候诊断研究,并依据《GB/T 21983—2008暖冬等级》,分析暖冬气候特征、成因以及与汛期降水量的关系。结果表明:1956—2017年淮南冬季平均气温呈明显上升趋势,尤其是1996年以后更为显著,1991年发生突变;平均最高气温和平均最低气温都呈现为波动性上升趋势,平均最低气温对冬季变暖贡献最大;暖冬指数呈上升趋势,20世纪90年代之前仅出现过1次弱暖冬,20世纪90年代以后出现13次暖冬,7次为强暖冬;西太平洋副高偏强偏西、亚洲冬季盛行纬向风和冷空气次数少、势力弱以及El Nino的发生,可能是造成淮南暖冬的主要因素。研究发现,强暖冬或强冷冬的年份里,当年汛期降水量容易偏多,对于汛期降水预测有一定的参考价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 The study aims at the change characteristics of warm winter events and their relationship with precipitation in flood season in Huainan from 1956 to 2017, for better serving local agricultural production in winter, disaster prevention and mitigation, and prediction of precipitation in flood season. Based on the winter temperature data from Huainan observation station during 1956-2017, we analyzed the climate characteristics,causes and their relationship with precipitation in flood season of warm winter by using the statistical methods,such as linear trend analysis, for climate diagnositic study according to GB/T 21983-2008 Warm Winter Grade.The results showed that: the trend of average temperature in winter increased significantly in Huainan from1956 to 2017, especially obvious since 1996, and the mutation happened in 1991; the mean maximum and minimum temperature showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the mean minimum temperature contributed most to winter warming; the warm winter index showed upward trend, there were 13 warm winters and 7 strong warm winters after 1990 s, but only one weak warm winter before 1990 s; the main factors which caused warm winter in Huainan might be the strengthened subtropical high in the western Pacific ocean, and the outbreak of El Nino event, and the prevalence of zonal winds and the weaken air at the Asia in winter. It is found that: the precipitation in flood season is easy to be more in the year of strong warm winter or cold winter, which has certain reference to the precipitation forecast in flood season.更多还原