【摘要】 针对石羊河流域开展水量调度对中长期径流预报的迫切需求,以西营水库为研究对象,在分析石羊河流域径流特性的基础上,构建基于主成分分析法筛选预报因子的BP、Elman和PSO-SVR三种预报模型对西营水库进行年径流预报。结果表明,基于主成分分析的Elman和PSO-SVR中长期径流预报模型在率定期和检验期的合格率均满足相关规定对作业预报模型的精度要求,可为石羊河流域中长期径流预报提供实际支撑,为石羊河流域开展水资源优化配置和水量调度提供依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Aiming at the urgent demand of medium and long term runoff forecast for water regulation in Shiyang River Basin and based on the analysis of runoff characteristics of Shiyang River Basin, this paper takes the Xiyanyang Reservoir as the research object and introduces 130 remote factors such as the atmospheric circulation index as the forecasting factors. Principal component analysis is used to optimize the factors, and the mid-long-term runoff forecast model based on physical cause analysis is combined with BP, Elman and PSO-SVR respectively to predict the annual runoff of Xiying Reservoir. The results show that the Elman and PSO-SVR medium and long-term runoff forecast models based on the principal component analysis meet the accuracy requirements of operation forecasting model in "hydrological information forecasting rules", which can be used as a support model for mid-long term runoff forecasting in Shiyang River Basin, providing the basis for optimizing the allocation of water resources and water regulation in Shiyang River Basin.更多还原