【摘要】 根据且末绿洲综合分析的基础上,基于水量平衡法和适当的水热平衡绿洲规模数学模型,分析了且末绿洲适宜的发展规模,得出以下结论:①且末绿洲总面积为992.16 km~2,现耕地总面积为150.88 km~2;②通过水量平衡法计算的且末适宜绿洲规模为1 062.67 km~2,且末绿洲适宜耕地面积为336.59 km~2。绿洲的现有规模及现有耕地面积比适宜规模小,需增加70.51 km~2的绿洲面积和185.71 km~2的耕地面积。可知,可以扩大绿洲面积,然而不能确定稳定性。③通过水热平衡法计算且末绿洲适宜规模为609.22～812.29 km~2,适宜耕地面积为92.66～123.55 km~2。即绿洲的现规模和现耕地面积远超适宜规模,同样超出适宜规模及适宜耕地面积的0.2～0.6倍。绿洲面积不宜再扩大。④结合且末绿洲的实际情况,且末绿洲稳定性指数约为0.5358,且末绿洲处于亚稳定状态,生态系统退化,绿洲需要较高的投入才能保持稳定。因此,水热平衡的适宜绿洲规模数学模型符合且末适宜绿洲规模计算的模型。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the comprehensive analysis of Qiemo Oasis,and on the basis of the water balance method and the appropriate mathematical model of the size of the water-heat balance oasis,this paper analyzes the suitable development scale of Qiemo Oasis,and draws the following conclusions: ①The total area of the last oasis is 992.16 km~2,and the total area of cultivated land is 150.88 km~2. ②According to the water balance method,the suitable oasis scale is 1 062.67 km~2 and the suitable cultivated land area of the last oasis is 336.59 km~2.The present scale of oasis and the cultivated land area are smaller than the suitable scale. It is necessary to increase the area of Oasis by70.51 and 185.71 km~2. It can be seen that the oasis area can be enlarged,but the stability can not be determined. ③The suitable scale of the last oasis is 609.22 ～ 812.29 km~2,and the suitable cultivated land area is 92.66～123.55 km~2. That is to say,the present scale of oasis and the area of cultivated land are far more than the suitable scale,and they are also 0.2 ～ 0.6 times larger than the suitable scale and the area of cultivated land. The area of oasis should not be enlarged. ④Combined with the actual situation of the last oasis,and the stability index of the last oasis is about 0.535 8,and the last oasis is in a sub-stable state,ecosystem degradation,oasis needs higher input to maintain stability.Therefore,the suitable oasis scale mathematical model of water and heat balance accords with the model of oasis scale calculation.更多还原