【摘要】 堰塞湖是一种由地震、降水等原因引发的山崩、滑坡堵截河道,使河道贮水形成湖泊的常见地质现象。大部分堰塞湖会在形成后短时间内溃决,所以快速准确地评价堰塞湖溃决的风险就显得相当重要。从应急评估的要求出发,综合考虑影响堰塞湖溃决的关键因素,借助主成分分析确定评价指标。在此基础上利用日本的36例堰塞湖及汶川地震形成的8例堰塞湖建立了2种评估堰塞湖稳定性的逻辑回归模型,其预测结果的准确率均为86.4%,证明其有较好的预测能力。同时文章进一步讨论了如何利用逻辑函数值进行堰塞湖风险评估,并总结了逻辑回归模型的优势与不足。更多还原

【Abstract】 Dammed Lake is a common geological phenomenon which happens when landslides caused by earthquakes,rainfalls block the river course.After the formation of a dammed lake,it usually fails in a short period of time.Thus,it’s vital to assess the probability of dammed lakes’ breaching quickly and precisely.This paper focuses on the demand of emergent risk assessment,takes chief factors that influence the stability of dammed lakes into consideration to select several significant variables,and utilizing principal components analysis(PCA)to determine the combination of these variables.Based on a dataset consisting of 36 Japanese dammed lakes and 8Chinese dammed lakes showed after the Wenchuan earthquake,this study establishes two logistic regression models.The accuracy of two models’ forecast is 86.4%,showing that they have rather high predictive abilities.Then this paper discusses how to use the results of two models to assess the risk of dammed lakes,and discusses advantages and limitations of the logistic regression models.更多还原