【摘要】 本文首先识别了经济林种植对人工林木材供给能力的作用机制,构建了将经济林种植在土地利用上的竞争效应及其经营收益的投资效应相结合的理论分析框架,然后基于南方12省份第二次至第八次森林资源清查面板数据,实证分析了经济林种植对人工林木材供给能力的影响及其机制。研究结果表明:第一,经济林种植提升了人工林蓄积量,总体上促进了南方12省份木材供给能力的提升;第二,经济林种植在土地利用上的竞争效应会一定程度地抑制人工林面积的增加,但其经营收益的投资效应则能明显促进人工林单位面积蓄积量的提升;第三,经济林种植更可能通过发挥消极投资效应提升人工林木材供给能力,即发挥经营收益的生计保障作用,使农户更有耐心等待长周期林木投资的回报。因此,要关注不同林种转换对木材生产和农户生计的影响,并重视经济林种植"以短养长"的投资效应及其对小规模农户在从事人工林木材经营方面的保障价值。更多还原

【Abstract】 This article constructs a theoretical framework of analysis that combines two intervention mechanisms, namely, the competition effect of tree crops cultivation on land use and the investment effect of its operating income. Based on the panel data from the second to the eighth forest resources inventory in12 provinces of South China, the study adopts a fixed effect model to empirically analyze the effect of the cultivation of tree crops on timber supply capacity in planted forests and its internal mechanisms. The results are as follows. Firstly, the cultivation of tree crops increases the volume of planted forest, and generally improves timber supply capacity in 12 southern provinces. Secondly, the cultivation of tree crops tends to inhibit expansion of planted forest area to a certain extent through land use competition effect, but largely promotes the increase of the volume of planted forest unit area through the investment effect of its operating income. Thirdly, tree crops cultivation is more likely to enhance the timber supply capacity of plantation by exerting negative investment effect, which means to give full play to the livelihood security role of operating income, thus making smallholders more patient to wait for long-term returns from planted forest timber investment. The results indicate that one should pay attention to the impact of conversion of forest types on timber supply and smallholders’ livelihoods, as well as to the investment effect of tree crops cultivation and its guarantee value for smallholders engaged in forest management.更多还原