【摘要】 为量化地震风险,首先选取风险指标,借助CAPRA软件平台,应用其各子模块分别进行危险性分析、易损性分析、损失分析,最终得到物理损失和人员损失等风险指标值。对风险指标值标准化之后,采用多标准评价法对风险指标按其重要性加权求和,得到区域的综合风险指数RT。综合风险指数越大,区域的地震风险越大。以四川为例,选取物理损失、人员损失和社会影响3个风险指标,运用此方法得到各市地震风险值。研究结果表明:四川眉山、资阳、广元、成都、乐山等地的地震风险较大,阿坝、甘孜、凉山、达州、泸州等地的地震风险较小,这对四川地区的房屋选址、风险规避、城市风险管理有一定的参考作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to quantify seismic risk, risk indicators were selected first, hazard analysis, vulnerability analysis and loss analysis were carried out using the CAPRA(central American probability risk assessment) platform with each sub-module, finally the values of risk indicators such as physical loss and human loss were obtained. The risk indicators were standardized, and then regional holistic risk index RT was taken as the weighted sum of the importance of risk indicators based on multi-criteria evaluation method. The greater the regional holistic risk index, the greater the regional seismic risk was. Physical loss, human loss and social impact were selected as risk indicators and taking Sichuan Province(China) as an example, the seismic risk values of each city were gained through this method. The results show that places like Meishan, Ziyang, Guangyuan, Chengdu and Leshan pose a higher seismic risk, but seismic risk of Aba,Ganzi, Liangshan, Dazhou and Luzhou is quite smaller, which can give some references for Sichuan’s house siting, risk mitigation and urban risk management.更多还原