【摘要】 在尾矿坝地震稳定性分析中,为适应计算参数本身具有的随机性和未确知性,将计算参数转换成盲数形式;针对尾矿坝地震稳定的极限平衡分析问题,提出一种计算尾矿坝安全系数的新方法,并将该模型应用到某尾矿坝的地震稳定性分析中。实际分析结果表明:运用盲数运算法则可以计算稳定性系数在不同取值区间内的可信度,克服了传统方法描述过于绝对化的问题,为判断尾矿坝的稳定状态提供了更全面的依据;该尾矿坝边坡安全系数低于1.3的可能性为13%,即在发生烈度为Ⅶ度的地震时该尾矿坝安全的可能性为87%,失稳的可能性较小,与实际情况相吻合;盲数理论在尾矿坝地震稳定性分析中能更好地考虑参数的不确定性,完善了尾矿坝稳定性分析理论,为尾矿坝稳定性的分析提供了一条新的途径。更多还原

【Abstract】 The calculation parameters including the mixture of multi uncertainty were transformed to the blind data to express the uncertainty of the calculation parameters in the tailings dam engineering.The theory of blind information was applied to the rigid limiting equilibrium method for tailings dam seismic stability.A new method of safety factor was applied to the seismic stability analysis of a tailings dam.The results show that the corresponding confidence level of safety factor at different numerical value intervals can be calculated by blind data algorithms.The more comprehensive result is provided to judge the stability state of tailings dam consequently,overcoming the defect of absolutely definitive description in the traditional methods.The tailings dam slope safety factor is less than 1.3,and the corresponding possibility is 13%,indicating that the probability of the tailing dam safety is 87% in the event of seismic intensity of Ⅶ degrees,which is consistent with the actual situation.It is a new way to analyze seismic stability of tailing dams,and the result is more detailed and reliable.更多还原