【摘要】 自川藏公路南线(西藏境内)修建通车以来,因受到泥石流、滑坡崩塌等自然灾害的影响而经常出现交通被迫中断的现象。其中,冰湖溃决泥石流由于其突发性强、洪峰高、流量大、破坏性强、持续时间短、范围广等特点,已成为藏东南地区危害程度最为严重的特殊灾种。通过对错下湖区域水文气候、冰川活动以及地震等要素的分析,初步认为该冰湖存在可能溃决的危险;通过终碛堤1/3和1/2溃决模式进行计算,得到溃决洪峰流量分别为2 236 m3/s和3 697 m3/s。错下湖一旦溃决,洪水汇入帕隆臧布江时将淹没以至冲毁沟口段公路、桥梁等基础设施,同时,主河还将面临泥石流堵江的危险。更多还原

【Abstract】 Since construction and opening to traffic,traffic interruptions occur often along the southern line of Sichuan-Tibet highway(in Tibet) due to hazards like debris flow and landslides.Debris flows caused by glacier-lake outburst have become the most serious disasters with the characteristics of unexpected occurrence,high flood peak,great discharge,destructive, short time duration and broad range.Based on analysis on important factors as hydrological climate,glacier movement and earthquake records,etc. in Cuoxiahu area,the glacier-lake is preliminarily proved to be in danger of outburst.Outburst peak flows are obtained respectively as 2 236m3/s and 3 697m3/s by calculation in the mode of 1/3 and 1/2 dam break.Once the outburst of the lake happen,infrastructure such as roads,bridges along the Parlung Tsangpo River would be washed off,even worse,the main river also faces the danger of being blocked by debris flows.更多还原