【摘要】 研究灾害脆弱性的变化有助于深入理解灾害及灾害风险的形成机制。在重新审视承灾体系统灾害脆弱性的分析层次和描述角度之后,深化了对地震灾害区域宏观脆弱性的影响因素和描述指标的再认识,完善了以主成分分析为核心技术的分析该类脆弱性时空变化的数理方法。以此为基础,以1985、1995、2000和2004年为代表时期,对京津唐地区20多年来的地震灾害区域宏观脆弱性的变化做了进一步的分析和总结。主要结论是:研究区地震灾害区域宏观脆弱性20多年来的时空变化可分解为少数几种脆弱性模式的变化;1985年以来,该类脆弱性的空间分异格局整体稳定;但是,各地自身脆弱与否的程度20多年来的变化却很显著——各大中城市市区的脆弱程度显著增强,其他地区整体减弱,且变化幅度前者显著大于后者;研究区地震灾害区域宏观脆弱性的时空变化主要受该地区的人口和经济特别是工商业经济的增长、城市化发展和产业结构的调整等3方面因素所驱动。更多还原

【Abstract】 Study on disaster vulnerability changes is greatly helpful for understanding disasters and disaster risk mechanism.On the basis of re-examination of the levels of analysis and descriptive hierarchies for the vulnerability of disaster-bearing human & social systems,the impacting factors and their descriptive indexes of the regional macroscopic vulnerability to earthquake disasters (RSMVED) are re-recognized,and the methodology centered on principal component analyzing technique for exploring the spatial & temporal change features of this kind of vulnerability is improved.Based on these more fully explainnations and this more perfect methodology,the spatial & temporal changes and their driving forces of RSMVED of Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan region,China,during the past 20 years are analyzed and summarized with evidences in detail by taking 1985,1995,2000 and 2004 as the representative time references.The result shows that the spatial and temporal changes of RSMVED of the studied area,from 1985 to 2004,can always be separated into the changes of several main vulnerability patterns.Further analysis indicates the spatial difference structures of RSMVED of this area,in the past 20 years,are rather stable.However,the vulnerability in different areas of this region have changed markedly in resent 20 years.The vulnerabilities in the urban areas of major cities have significantly increased,while vulnerabilities in the other areas have decreased.The amplitude of changes of the former is larger than that of the latter.As far as the change driving forces of RSMVED is concerned,this paper suggested that it is the population and economy increases,urbanization development and industry structure adjustment are the three main ones.It is thought that the changes of regional macroscopic vulnerability to earthquake disasters in the studied region are mainly affected by population and economy increases,urbanization development and industry structure adjustmen.更多还原