【摘要】 综合利用历史记录法、成因分析法、预测法等灾害识别技术对上海虹桥综合交通枢纽工程的各种灾害及其因素进行初步识别,确定虹桥枢纽可能遭受的灾害种类。再利用故障树方法对确定的各灾害进行作用机理分析,最终确定虹桥枢纽的灾害清单。针对上海虹桥综合枢纽工程的复杂性和灾害的随机性、模糊性,以及在运营时出现的一些灾害难以用非常准确的量化数据加以表达的特点,将模糊综合评判法应用到交通枢纽工程的灾害等级评估中来。在国际隧道协会制定的灾害等级表的基础上,建立灾害等级隶属函数,使评价结果尽可能与国际标准接轨。更多还原

【Abstract】 Using hazard identification technology such as historical record method,genesis analysis method and prediction mthod,disasters and causes for the Shanghai Hongqiao integrated transport project is preliminarily identified,and its disaster category is determined.A final list of disasters is given,using the malfunction factor method to analyze the mechanism of main disasters.Due to the complexity of the project and randomness of disasters,it is difficult to accurately quantify the data of disasters during the project.So,the disaster grade assessment is processed with the fuzzy comprehensive assessment method.On the basis of disaster grade table made by the international association of the tunnel,the affiliation function is established to make assessment results accord with the international standards as much as possible.This kind of disaster assessment ideas and methods can be a reference for later large-scale integrated transport projects.更多还原