【摘要】 对华东地区1300年以来中强地震活动特征,利用强震组增益P、强震组效能R和强震组分布变异值S等三种指标进行了定量分析,结果显示该区不同时段、不同震级的地震活动呈现不同的特征和分布类型;同时用b值方法分析了目前地震活动状态;在此基础上应用泊松模型对未来地震趋势进行了概率预测。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, the features of moderate-strong earthquake activity in east China since 1300 are analyzed by using seismic grouping gain (P value)、sufficiency (R value) and distribution variation parameter (S value). The result shows that there are different seismic activity features and distribution types in the different periods and magnitude ranges. At the same time, present seismic activity situation are analyzed with the b-value method. Based on this, the future seismic activity trend is predicated with Poisson distribution model.更多还原