【摘要】 提出了一种基于最大似然和贝叶斯最小判别准则的新预测方法，它的长处在于对样本数无特殊要求，所以，对低地震活动地区，此模型也能得到与时间有关的稳定的未来强震危险估计。最后，以华北地区为例，说明了本方法的可行性更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper, a new prediction method based on maximun likelihood and Bayesian minmun criterion has been suggested. High examples is not necessary for this method. Therefore, the stady and time dependent estimation for the future strong earthquake risk could also be obtained for low seismicity area by this method. Finally, taking North China area as an example, the feasibility of the model has been shown.更多还原