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非线性地震流函数在强震概率增长空间域预测中的应用研究
Study of Non linear Earthquake Flow Functions and Their Application to the Space Increased Probability (SIP) of Strong Earthquake
【摘要】 在SIP算法的基础上,确立了地震流函数的定义方法和异常判别准则,定义了9个非线性地震流函数。通过对中国东部近期7次6级以上强震的SIP回溯性研究表明,7次强震中的6次落入SIP预测空间域内,有震报准率为86%,SIP预测警戒空间域为32%,R值评分为054,证明非线性地震流函数用于中期地震预测具有较好的前景。
【Abstract】 A definition and anomaly discriminant criteria of earthquake flow function are introduced in the paper based on the algorithm of Space Increased Probability (SIP). Nine earthquake flow functions are defined by the method. The backtracking tests applying the SIP algorithm with the non linear earthquake flow functions to 7 earthquakes with magnitude greater than 6 occurred during 1975 ~1989 in East Chinese Mainland depict that 6 in 7 strong earthquakes (86%) located in the SIP areas, and the SIP covered about 32% of the total research time space domain. These suggest that the R value, a effective scale for earthquake prediction, is 54% and may imply that the non linear earthquake flow functions introduced in the paper can be applied to the medium term forecast research.
【Key words】 Non linear earthquake flow function; Space Increased Probability of strong earthquake;
- 【文献出处】 中国地震 ,EARTHQUAKE RESEARCH IN CHINA , 编辑部邮箱 ,1998年01期
- 【分类号】P315.01
- 【下载频次】30