【摘要】 本文用影响烈度资料预测地震烈度发生概率，并以安徽大、中城市为例，进行抗震设防效益简析。结果表明，用烈度资料进行城市地震烈度发生概率的研究是可行的。并且发现，在基本烈度（中国地震烈度区划图，１９９０，１／４００万）相同的城市，其地震烈度发生概率有较大的差异，这为安徽大、中城市抗震设防标准的确定及防震减灾决策提供了依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 In this paper,a method has been put forward that can predict occurrence probability of earthquake intensity based on the historical earthquake affected intensity of the site.As an example,we have made simple economic benefit analysis of earthquake resistant protection on the large and medium size cities of Anhui Province.The results show that it is feasible for the study of the city’s earthquake intensity occurrence probability based on the affected intensity.We′ve found that in the city of same basic intensity (Seismic Intensity Zoning Map of China,1990,1/4,000,000),there are many difference in the occurrence probability.It provides scientiyic basis for determining the earthquake resistant protection standard and the policy of hazard reduction on the large and medium size cities of Anhui Province.更多还原