【摘要】 对川滇地区进行调制/非调制地震有限时空扫描,提取调制小震具有显著差异的短期非稳态震兆图像,分析强震前调制小震的非稳态短期异常特征及预测效能,并计算震中附近地区的小震调制比时间序列。结果显示,调制地震方法在该地区MS≥6.0地震的短期预测中效果显著;汶川8.0级地震前,震区附近存在明显的调制小震空段短期震兆图像。更多还原

【Abstract】 The spatio-temporal scanning of the modulated or un-modulated earthquakes in the region of Sichuan-Yunnan helps obtain the short-term non-stationary seismic precursory images with significant difference for the analysis of the characteristic of non-stationary short-term seismic anomalies and the prediction efficiency of small earthquakes before a strong earthquake. Besides,small earthquake modulation ratios and near the region of epicenter are calculated and sorted by time. The results indicate that there is a significant effect using modulated earthquake method to predict earthquake with MS≥6. 0 in short time. Before the Wenchuan MS8. 0 earthquake,there were obvious short-term gap seismic precursory images of modulated small earthquake.更多还原