【摘要】 自2005年4月8日西藏仲巴6.7级地震后,我国大陆出现了历史上少有的6级地震平静。截止到2007年4月初,6级地震平静达730多天,这一现象引起了众多专家的高度关注,将在何时、何处打破这种平静一时成为关注的焦点。依据我国大陆形变异常分布特征,作者分别于2007年4月18日和4月27日试验性地提出了《东部地区短期地震危险性分析意见》及西北地区5月份存在发生6级地震可能性的预测意见。两次预测实验结果尽管都不是很准确,但对于揭示地壳形变观测本质及探索地震预测新方法等都是有意义的。更多还原

【Abstract】 The longest interval between two strong earthquakes in a series since 1900 on the Chinese mainland is 649 days. From the Zongba M_S6.7 earthquake, occurred on April 8, 2005, up to the beginning of April, 2007, the waiting time was closed to 730 days, the seismic quietness was paid a great attention by specialists. When and where the strong earthquake will occur that become a focuses to be investigated. Based on the observed deformation data, the authors proposed the reports "On the Short-term Possibility of Strong Earthquake in the Eastern Region of China" and "The Possibility of Strong Earthquake in May in the northwestern China Region", respectively on April 18 and April 27,2007. Although there is a great difference in positions between predicted and really occurred earthquakes, but the attempt is useful to realize the meaning of ground deformation observations and the exploring new approaches for earthquake prediction.更多还原