【摘要】 本文通过分析 80年代以来的川滇地区跨断层形变测量资料、区域垂直形变测量资料及部分大区域GPS测量资料 ,认为该时间域内川滇地区地壳形变处于相对弱状态 ,并直接导致了自 1981年道孚 6 9级地震后至今川滇地区 6级以上地震基本上未沿主边界断裂展布 ,且具有准顺时针旋转迁移的分布特征。基于此 ,认为未来几年内川滇地区地震危险性预测研究的重点应是川滇地区中部。最后根据现今地壳形变测量资料和地震分布特征提出了川滇地区活动地块时段性划分的概念 ,并给出了初步的划分结果。更多还原

【Abstract】 The data of across fault measurement,area leveling and part of the GPS measurement after 1980 in Sichuan and Yunnan,China have been analyzed.We conclude that in this period the crustal deformation velocity in the area of Chuandian (Sichuan Yunnan) was lower and result of the earthquake ( M S≥6 0) after the Daofu earthquake with M S6 9 did not occurred along the major boundary active fault of the Chuandian (Sichuan Yunnan) area and their moving route characterized quasi clockwise.So,it is considered that the highlight of the earthquake prediction research may put on the central part of Chuandian(Sichuan Yunnan) in the future. At last,the authors raise the concept of temporal division of active block,and gave the initial result in the area of Chuandian (Sichuan Yunnan),China.更多还原