【摘要】 将确定性方法与概率性方法相结合,通过对自贡市地震地质背景、发震断裂及其发震能力、地震活动的时空分布特征、未来50年地震活动趋势预测、自贡市遭受破坏性地震的期望震级与期望距离等几个方面的研究,综合确定了2个设定地震,其结果可以为自贡市人民政府及有关部门制定大震应急预案、建立大震快速反应系统提供依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 Combining deterministic methods with probabilistic methods,the authors make detail research on seismo\|geological background,causative faults and their earthquake abilities,the temporal and spatial distribution features of seismicity,the prediction of seismic tendency in next 50 years,and the expectant magnitude and expectant distance of destructive earthquakes Zigong city,southwest China will suffer from.Then 2 scenario earthquakes are determined for Zigong city.The results will be helpful for the local government and authorities to establish emergency preparedness and quick reaction system of earthquakes.更多还原