【摘要】 基于2000—2014年生长季MODIS NDVI数据和同期降水、平均气温的格点数据,采用趋势分析法、SPEI指数、相关分析法,对三江平原NDVI时空变化特征和对气候变化的响应进行了分析。结果表明:近15年三江平原区生长季的NDVI以0.017/10a的速率呈缓慢上升趋势。其中NDVI显著增加和极显著增加的面积占比分别为13.43%和12.55%,NDVI变化趋势轻度改善的面积较大,占比为25.52%;三江平原地区生长季的多年平均气温总体呈下降趋势,降水量呈上升趋势,总体上生长季标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)数值呈上升趋势,干旱化逐年减弱,中等干旱状况得到缓解,渐渐过渡到轻微湿润状态,对植被覆盖面积的增加有促进作用,也为该区域的生态环境恢复提供了有利条件;三江平原地区生长季NDVI与生长季气温、降水量及SPEI主要呈正相关,与降水呈正相关面积占72.64%,与SPEI呈正相关的面积占70.51%,与气温呈正相关的面积占56.73%。NDVI与降水的相关性最高,说明降水是三江平原植被生长的主导气候因子。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the MODIS NDVI data of the growing season in 2000-2014 and the grid data of average temperature and precipitation during the same growing season, the trend analysis method, SPEI index and correlation analysis method were used to analyze the temporal and spatial variation of NDVI and its response to climate change in Sanjiang Plain. The results show that the NDVI value of the Sanjiang Plain in the past 15 years increased slowly at a rate of 0.017/10 a. Among them, the proportion of NDVI significantly increased and extremely significant increase was 13.43% and 12.55%, respectively. The area of slight improvement in NDVI trend is relatively large, at 25.52%; The average annual temperature in the Sanjiang Plain growing season showed a downward trend, and the precipitation increased. The overall SPEI value of the growing season showed an upward trend, the aridification weakened year by year, the moderate drought condition was alleviated, and gradually transitioned to a slightly humid state. The increase in coverage has a positive effect and provides favorable conditions for ecological restoration in the region; In the growth season of the Sanjiang Plain, NDVI was mainly positively correlated with temperature, precipitation and SPEI in the growth season, accounting for 72.64% of the area positively correlated with precipitation, 70.51% with SPEI and 56.73% with temperature. NDVI has the highest correlation with precipitation, indicating that precipitation is the dominant climate factor for vegetation growth in the Sanjiang Plain.更多还原