【摘要】 中国超过60%的城市不同程度上存在水资源短缺问题,其中约一半的缺水城市严重缺水。城市水资源供给将成为制约部分城市人口承载力的重要因素。本文基于11万户中国城镇家庭调查(UHS)的微观数据对城镇居民家庭的用水需求进行实证分析。主要的研究发现如下:①城镇居民家庭用水的价格弹性在-0. 4～-0. 5之间,收入弹性大约为0. 2～0. 3之间,为缺乏价格弹性和收入弹性,意味着按照"拉姆齐"原理,开征水资源税是具有效率的。价格弹性的绝对值在总体上高于收入弹性,也意味着只要城镇用水价格的平均上调幅度不低于城镇居民家庭实际收入增长幅度,城市居民的平均直接用水量将不会提高。②城镇居民生活方式的转变也是家庭水消费的重要影响因素,外出就餐和服务类支出比重显著降低家庭的直接用水量,家庭外出就餐每增加1%,会减少直接用水0. 3%左右,而家庭购买服务会减少直接用水0. 2～0. 3个百分点,意味着存在"虚拟水"转移现象。③异质性分析方面,价格弹性和收入弹性在不同的收入阶层之间并无统计上的显著差异,这意味着不同收入家庭用水的不平等性不受收入弹性值的差异影响,因此旨在促进家庭用水节约的政策设计上,可以不把家庭收入作为政策设定的参考变量。④对上述结果进行了稳定性检验,通过逐步缩小样本范围,尽量确保进入回归的样本都是单一水价以及在当年未经历水价调整。其结果表明本文主要实证结果稳健可靠。本文的实证研究对未来城市居民家庭用水模式进行了定量评估,为未来城市水资源管理方面的政策制定提供了微观层面的理论依据。更多还原

【Abstract】 More than 60% of cities in China face water shortages to varying degrees,and around half of these cities are hit by severe water shortage. Water resource supply has become one important restriction factor of population carrying capacity in parts of Chinese cities. Based on extensive data of 110,000 households collected by the Chinese Urban Household Surveys( UHS),this research empirically analyzes the demand of water for urban households. The main findings are as follows: First,the price elasticity of urban household water consumption( between-0. 4 and-0. 5) and the income elasticity( between 0. 2 and 0. 3) are both at a relatively low level,which means that,according to the principle of Ramsey,levying water tax will be efficient. The absolute value of price elasticity is higher than that of income elasticity,and this implies that as long as the average increase in urban water price is higher than the actual income growth of urban households,the average direct water consumption of urban residents will not increase. Second,the lifestyle transformation for urban residents is also a significant factor in affecting the household water consumption. The amount of eating out and the proportion of expenditures on services influence the water consumption of households. For instance,every 1%increase in the amount of eating out will reduce 0. 3% in water consumption directly,and that of household service expenditure will reduce 0. 2% ～ 0. 3% in water consumption directly. This reveals the presence of‘virtual water’transfer effect. Third,in the analysis of heterogeneity,there is no statistically significant difference between price elasticity and income elasticity for different income classes.This demonstrates that the inequality of water consumption for different income households is not affected by the income elasticity,and,therefore,household income may not be considered as a reference variable for designing the policy of promoting water conservation.Lastly,by gradually reducing the sample size and thus largely ensuring that the regressed samples are all under uniform pricing and have not experienced water price adjustment in that year,the robustness of these empirical results are tested and verified. More broadly,this research provides a quantitative evaluation of water consumption for urban households in the future,and also builds a micro-level theoretical basis for future policies of urban water management.更多还原