【摘要】 云南要努力成为生态文明建设的排头兵,必须探寻一条生态文明建设的有效路径。本文构建了包含社会、经济、资源和环境四个子系统的生态文明建设指标体系。通过分析四个子系统之间的相互作用和相互影响关系,运用系统动力学原理和方法,构建生态文明建设系统模型,并对模型设置的合理性和科学性进行检验。根据云南实际,选择8个能够全面并重点反映生态文明建设状况的指标作为控制变量,8个显示生态文明建设效果的变量,设计维持现状发展路径、社会发展优先路径、经济发展优先路径、节约资源和保护环境优先路径、协调发展路径等生态文明建设的5条路径,通过模拟仿真,得到2025年和2035年生态文明建设效果。并从生产总值、总人口、就业人数、资源效率和环境绩效等五方面进一步分析云南生态文明建设路径的有效性,得到:(1)经济发展优先路径和维持现状发展路径不利于生态文明建设;(2)社会发展优先路径促进了云南就业人数增加,节约资源和保护环境优先路径提升了资源效率,但都不能全面推动生态文明建设;(3)协调发展路径对云南生态文明建设的经济、社会和环境子系统具有较强的促进作用,是优先选择发展路径。针对选择路径提出三方面建议:(1)社会、经济、资源与环境必须协调发展;(2)提高资源利用效率和加大可再生能源的应用;(3)充分发挥公众的环境监督作用。更多还原

【Abstract】 Yunnan must explore an effective path during constructing ecological civilization in order to promote ecological civilization.This study constructed an ecological civilization system based on society,economy,resources,and the environment. For each of the four subsystems,the structural indicators of the ecological civilization construction system were selected. By analyzing the interactions among the four subsystems and using system dynamics principles and methods,a system model of ecological civilization construction was constructed based on the actual situation in Yunnan,and the rationality and scientific validity of the model were tested. Eight indicators that could fully reflect the status of ecological civilization route as a control variable were selected,as well as eight variables that showed the effectiveness of ecological civilization route. Five route models were designed to maintain the current development model,social development priority model,economic development priority model,resource conservation and environmental protection priority mode,coordinated development model and other ecological civilization routes. The effect of ecological civilization construction in 2025 and 2035 was obtained by simulation. Then this paper analyzed the effectiveness of Yunnan ’s ecological civilization construction route from five aspects including total output value,total population,employment,resource efficiency,and environmental performance,and the results showed that:(1)Economic development priority model and maintenance of current development model were not conducive to the route of ecological civilization.(2)The priority route of social development promoted the increase in the number of people employed in Yunnan,at the mean time saved resources,and prioritized the protection of the environment to improve resource efficiency. However,it did not fully promote the ecological civilization route.(3) The coordinated development model had a strong influence on the economic,social,and environmental subsystems of the ecological civilization route in Yunnan. The role of promotion was to give priority to the development path. Finally, three suggestions were proposed:(1) Social, economic, resource, and environmental development must be coordinated.(2)The efficiency of resource utilization and the use of sustainable energy should be increased.(3)The role of public environmental supervision should be fully utilized.更多还原