【摘要】 气候变化对粮食安全的影响越来越受到各级政府和学界的关注。然而,已有研究在评估气候变化对粮食单产的影响时,因情景设定、模型方法、参数设定或作物种类等不同,得出的结果存在差异,甚至出现正负截然相反的评估结果,给气候变化经济学者在评估气候变化对粮食供需、价格和贸易的影响时选用哪篇文献的结果作为依据进一步评估造成困扰。本文研究目的是以已有文献中有关气候变化对中国未来粮食单产影响的评估结果为统计样本,构建气候变化对粮食单产影响的损失函数,给出统一情景下气温、降水变化对中国主要粮食作物单产的影响。本文从1 366篇文献中通过层层筛选,找到34篇高度相关的文献,基于此获得了288个研究样本,采用统计描述分析和文献计量Meta分析方法估计气候变化关键变量对主要粮食作物单产的影响。研究结果表明,气候变化对主要粮食作物单产的影响大小与气候变化情景、作物种类、种植地区、是否考虑CO₂肥效等有关。综合不同气候变化情景的结果,发现:气温每提高1℃,中国三大粮食作物的单产整体下降约2. 6%;降水每增加1%,中国三大粮食作物的单产整体约增加0. 4%; CO₂肥效的影响存在较大争议。综合气温和降水对粮食单产的影响,本研究表明气候变化将对中国粮食安全造成一定的冲击,可能部分抵消技术进步等带来的正面效应。本研究综合相关文献结果,提供了统一情景下气温、降水变化对中国主要粮食作物单产的影响,将为气候变化的农产品供需市场模型或者气候变化综合评估模型（IAM）研究提供可靠的数据基础。更多还原

【Abstract】 The impact of climate change on food security is attracting ever increasing attention from governments and academics.However,the previous studies on assessing the effects of climate change on grain yield-which used different impact factors and methodshave led to different,even contrasting results. This situation confuses agricultural and climate change economists when choosing the yield loss for assessing the impact of climate change on food security. This paper aims to provide the impact of temperature and precipitation changes on the yields of China’s staple crops under a unified scenario by using the results of the existing research on assessment of the impact of climate change on China’s future grain yields as a statistical sample. Then it constructs a damage function of climate change impact on grain yield. Thus,this study establishes 288 samples according to the results of highly relevant papers and applies Meta-analysis method to assess the impact of climate change on staple crops’ yield of China. The results show that the impacts of climate change on the yield of staple crops are different depending on climate change scenarios,crop types,planting areas,and whether CO₂ fertilizer efficiency is considered. It concludes that for every 1℃ increase in temperature,the overall yield of China’s three major food crops decreases by about 2. 6%; for every 1% increase in precipitation,the yield of China’s three major food crops increases by about 0. 4%; while the influence of the CO₂ fertilizer effect has large uncertainty due to different studies. By synthesizing the effects of temperature and precipitation on grain yields,this study shows that climate change will certainly affect China’s food security even offsetting the positive effects of some technological advance. Our study summarizes the impacts of climate change on the yield of staple crops under the same temperature and precipitation change and will provide reliable data basis for assessing the impact of climate change by using agricultural partial equilibrium model or integrated assessment models.更多还原