【摘要】 绿色发展和生态文明作为未来的发展战略已被写入中华人民共和国宪法。低碳经济是支撑和实现绿色发展和生态文明的经济形态,其实质是在完成CO₂减排目标的同时实现经济增长。碳生产率是连接CO₂减排与经济增长两个目标的桥梁,提高碳生产率是发展低碳经济的核心和关键。建筑业的能耗和CO₂排放分别占中国各产业总和的1/4和1/3,是绿色发展和生态文明建设需要重点关注的行业。本文提出三阶段方法框架,研究动态建筑业全要素碳生产率（DCP）的收敛俱乐部及初始成因:首先,基于数据包络分析求解的方向距离函数和Malmquist指数方法,测算2005—2016年中国30个省、自治区和直辖市的DCP;然后,用基于非线性时变因子模型的俱乐部检验方法,识别中国省际DCP的收敛俱乐部;最后,用ordered logit回归模型对可能影响"收敛俱乐部"形成的初始因素进行探寻。结果显示:（1）中国DCP的均值呈上升趋势、标准差呈扩大趋势,尤其是2010年以后的标准差急剧扩大;（2）中国省级DCP存在5个收敛俱乐部,但有13个省不收敛于任何俱乐部;（3）样本观测期初"建筑业市场化程度"越高的省份,归属于"DCP高的俱乐部"的概率越大。据此,提出如下提升DCP的管理启示:（1）促进低碳建造技术有效扩散,缩小各省份之间的DCP水平差距;（2）制定和实施建筑业低碳发展的相关政策举措时,不能简单地按地理区划,而需要考虑各省的异质性;（3）继续推进国有建筑业企业的市场化改革,进一步提高建筑业市场化水平,促进建筑业专业承包企业的发展,适当降低建筑业的产业集中度。该方法框架也可用于研究其他国家、地区或其他行业。更多还原

【Abstract】 The green development and ecological civilization had been written into China’s constitution as a development strategy. The low-carbon economy is an economic form that supports and realizes green development and ecological civilization. Its essence is to achieve economic growth while achieving the goal of carbon dioxide（ CO₂） emission reduction. Carbon productivity is the bridge linking CO₂ emission reduction and economic growth. Increasing carbon productivity is the core and critical path to the development of the low-carbon economy. The energy consumption and CO₂ emissions from the construction industry account for one-fourth and one-third of the national total in China,respectively. The green development and ecological civilization need to focus on the construction industry. A three-phase procedural method framework was proposed to examine the dynamic construction industry total factor carbon productivity（ DCP） convergence clubs and initial conditioning factors in this paper. Firstly,the directional distance function and Malmquist index method based on data envelopment analysis（ DEA） was applied to estimate the DCP of 30 province,autonomous regions and municipalities in China from 2005 to 2016. Then,the club test method based on non-linear time-varying factor model was applied to identify the convergence clubs of China’s provincial DCP. Finally,the ordered logit regression model was applied to explore the initial factors that may affect the formation of convergence clubs. The results showed that:（1）The arithmetic mean value of China’s provincial DCP showed an upward trend and the standard deviation showed an expanding trend,and the standard deviation sharply expanded after 2010.（2）There are 5 convergence clubs in China’s provincial DCP. But 13 provinces failed to converge to any club.（3）With the higher ’marketization of construction industry’degree at the beginning of the sample observation period,the greater the probability that the provinces belongs to club with higher DCP. Based on these findings,the following suggestions for improving the DCP are proposed:（1） The effective diffusion of low-carbon construction technologies should be promoted to narrow the gap between provinces DCP.（2） Instead of formulating and implementing relevant policies and measures for low-carbon development simply by geographical divisions,it is necessary to consider the heterogeneity among different provinces in construction industry.（3）In order for each province to become a member of a club with higher DCP,it is necessary to continue to promote the market-oriented reform of stateowned construction companies,support the development of professional companies,and appropriately lower the degree of industrial concentration. The three-phase procedural method framework can also be applied to study different industries in different countries or regions.更多还原