【摘要】 [目的]在我国城镇化快速发展的大背景下,农村居民点分化重组趋势日益明显。利用模型模拟的手段定量揭示农村居民点空间格局演化的驱动因素,准确理解其演化过程和未来时期的布局态势,以期达到农村居民点的合理布局势在必行。为此,需要对目前农村居民点演化模拟的研究现状,以及应用的农村居民点演化模拟模型的适用性有一定的把握和认识。[方法]文章利用文献资料法和对比分析法,以农村居民点演化模拟研究的主要内容为主线,梳理和总结了农村居民点演化发展趋势、农村居民点演化模拟驱动机制,以及农村居民点演化模拟方法和模型,评述了不同演化模型的模拟原理及其优缺点。[结果]由于农村居民点的斑块空间破碎化、参与主体多样性、驱动因素复杂等原因,常规的土地利用变化模型在农村居民点模拟的应用上遇到了很大的挑战;农村居民点演化模拟模型的选择仍具有较强的驱动力和尺度依赖性。[结论]土地利用变化模型可为农村居民点演化模拟研究提供有效参考,但是更加准确的农村居民点演化模拟需要注重机理模型的研发。通过空间途径和社会途径的耦合,解析农村居民点格局演化过程中的主要决策主体,构建农村居民点演化多主体模型,将是未来农村居民点演化模拟的重要方向。更多还原

【Abstract】 At present,with the rapid urbanization in China,the differentiation and reorganization trends of rural settlement are becoming more and more obvious. In order to achieve a reasonable layout for rural settlements,it is imperative to quantitatively reveal the determinants that influence the spatial evolution of rural settlements,accurately understand its evolution process and furtherly predict their future layout by modeling and simulation approaches. Therefore,it is necessary to master the current status of research on simulating the evolution of rural settlement patterns and evaluate the applicability of models that can be used to simulate the rural settlement evolution.Taking the main contents of the research on the rural settlement evolution simulation as a mainline,using the methods of literature summary and comparative analysis,this paper reviews the evolution patterns and driving mechanism of rural settlements and compares the advantages and disadvantages of their methods and models. Findings from our systemic review are showed as follows. As the reasons of scattered distribution in rural settlement,diversity of its participants,and complex driving factors,the application of conventional land-use change models in simulating rural settlement is facing great challenges. The selection of the simulation model of rural settlement strongly associates with the selections of driving forces and spatial scale. In conclusion,the simulation model of land use change can provide an effective reference on the simulation of rural settlements evolution. However,the more accurate evolution simulation of rural settlements requires a further consideration of the model mechanism. As a consequence,to analyze the main decision-making body in the rural settlement evolution through coupling spatial approach and social approach,and additionally,construct a multi-agent model will be an important future direction of the rural settlements’ evolution simulation.更多还原