【摘要】 中国石油对外依存度持续走高,石油安全成为各方关注的焦点。为客观评价中国石油安全状况,本文运用压力-状态-响应(PSR)模型和层次分析法,结合石油供需、石油经济、政治与军事等3类石油安全影响因素,构建了具有内在因果联系和互动关系的石油安全定量评价指标体系。综合评价认为,2000—2017年,通过强化石油安全响应机制建设,中国石油安全总体状况先降后升。与美国、欧盟和日本发达经济体相比,中国石油安全存在对外依存度持续走高、石油应急调控能力较弱、海外石油获取控制能力不强等三大薄弱环节。随着综合国力增强,未来中国石油安全需由被动防御型安全向主动防御型安全转变,通过强化应急调控能力建设和重点地区能源外交,努力实现石油进口自主、可控安全。更多还原

【Abstract】 China petroleum security has attracted great public attention since the petroleum dependence degree on foreign trade continues to rise. In order to get an objective evaluation of national petroleum security, by using Pressure-State-Response(PSR) model and analytic hierarchical process, combined with petroleum security influence factors such as supply & demand, economic condition, politics & military, this paper establishes the quantified China petroleum security evaluation index system which concerns about internal relations and interactions. According to comprehensive evaluation, it shows that China petroleum security condition first fell and then rose during 2000～2017 by consolidating petroleum security response mechanism construction. Compared with developed country such as USA, EU & Japan, China petroleum security has three weak points including increment of dependence degree on foreign trade, weakness for urgent regulation control ability and overseas oil acquisition control ability. Accompanied by enhancement of comprehensive national power, China petroleum security should be changed from passive defensive type to active defensive type in future. By strengthening urgent regulation control ability, and intensifying energy diplomacy in key regions, the import autonomy and controllable safety will be greatly improved.更多还原