【摘要】 随着矿产资源大量开采,中国矿产资源耗竭问题愈发突出。本文利用查明资源储量数据,应用Hubbert峰值模型分析了中国十种有色金属矿产的产量峰值年限。结果表明:中国锑矿在2014年就已经到达Hubbert产量峰值,其他9种有色金属矿产将在2050年前后顺次达峰,其中,锡矿、铅矿和锌矿将于2030年前达峰,钴矿、铜矿和铝土矿将于2040年前达峰,钨矿、镍矿和钼矿将在2040年后达峰;除锑矿、钼矿和镍矿外,其他有色金属矿产耗竭程度要高于全球水平。为了有效缓解中国矿产资源耗竭程度,提出几条建议:增强二次资源循环利用强度;加大找矿勘查力度,对不同矿种设置优先勘查次序;增大进口量、拓宽进口来源;加快海外投资布局的步伐。更多还原

【Abstract】 With the massive exploitation of mineral resources,the problem of depletion of mineral resources in China has become increasingly prominent.In this paper,we use the Hubbert’s peak model to analyze the maximum production peak of ten non-ferrous metal minerals in China by using the resource reserves data.The results show that:China’s antimony ore has reached the peak of Hubbert’s peak production in 2014,and the others will reach the peak one by one before 2050.Tin,lead and zinc will reach their Hubbert’s peak production by 2030.Correspondingly,cobalt,copper and bauxite will reach the Hubbert’s peak production by2040.Tungsten,nickel and molybdenum will reach the Hubbert’s peak production after 2040.The degree of depletion of other non-ferrous metal minerals is higher than the global level except for antimony,molybdenum and nickel.In order to effectively alleviate the depletion of mineral resources in China,this paper proposes four proposals:to enhance the recycling intensity of secondary resources;to increase the intensity of prospecting and exploration,set priority exploration order for different minerals;to increase import volume,broaden import sources;to accelerate the pace of overseas layout and investment.更多还原