【摘要】 自然环境的演化及人类工程活动对自然环境的改变,造成的滑坡灾害频发,给人民生命财产安全带来极大的威胁。因此,总结我国滑坡模拟研究发展趋势和存在问题,提出发展方向建议,无疑对滑坡模拟研究具有重要的指导意义。论文采用计量和内容分析相结合的方法,分析了我国近30年来滑坡模拟研究热点和主要进展,提出了滑坡模拟研究方法物理模拟与数值模拟相结合和模拟"数据采集新、数据分析新、可视化方式新"三新的发展趋势;基于滑坡模拟基础模型适用性选择理论不成熟、灾害空间预测方法不具有地区普适性的现状,提出了在可视化基础上开展特定区域空间连续自动预测的灾害空间预测发展方向建议。更多还原

【Abstract】 The evolution of natural environment and the change of natural environment caused by human engineering activities have resulted in frequent landslide disasters,which poses a great threat to people’s lives and property safety. Therefore,it is undoubtedly of great guiding significance to summarize the development trend and existing problems of landslide simulation research in China and put forward suggestions for its development direction. In this paper,the research hotspots and main progress of landslide simulation in China in recent 30 years are analyzed by the method of combining measurement with content analysis. Three new trends of landslide simulation are proposed,which are the combination of physical simulation and numerical simulation,and the simulation of "new data acquisition,new data analysis and new visualization methods".Based on the current situation that the applicability selection theory of landslide simulation basic model is immature and the spatial prediction method of disasters does not have regional universality,the development direction of disaster spatial prediction for spatial continuous automatic prediction in specific regions based on visualization is proposed.更多还原