【摘要】 湖北省清江隔河岩水利枢纽是一项集发电、防洪、灌溉及航运等综合效益的大型工程。自 1983年 4月蓄水以来 ,库岸部分滑坡体受库水位浸泡和库水位的抬高以及反复涨落的影响 ,出现了不同程度的变形。作者有针对性的选择受库水位反复涨落影响 ,稳定性差 ,变形较大 ,人口居住密集 ,潜在危害性大 ,有可能碍航 ,危及人民生命财产安全的茅坪、墓坪及杨家槽重要滑坡 ,进行了监测分析及预测模型研究。1.在滑坡变形分析中应用了数理统计图表法、滑坡条块分析法及环境工程地质类比法 ,数据定量分析与地质分析相结合 ,综合分析了水库蓄水前、后滑坡地表与深部的变形特征及其主要影响因素 (库水位反复涨落、大气降雨及人类工程活动、水库诱发岩溶气爆型地震等 )。2 .在非线性建模的技术方法上 ,改进了传统的变形替换作“曲改直”的常规算法。首次巧妙地采用测量学中的参数平差法与优化数学中的牛顿法和麦夸尔特参数估计法来优化滑坡预测模型参数 ,提高滑坡预测模型精度。3.研究开发的滑坡变形系统 QJ—HPV3.0应用软件 ,将自动寻优选模 ,自动优化模型参数建模和自动绘制彩色图象等 3大功能有机结合起来 ,为实现滑坡监测数据处理自动化提供有益经验。更多还原

【Abstract】 The hub of water conservancy in Geheyan of Qingjiang River of Hubei Province is a great project which includes the comprehensive benefit of generating electricity, preventing flood, irrigation and shipping etc. Since April 1993, the reservoir having stored water, some landslides that were influenced by soaking, raising, rising and falling repeatedly of the reservoir water level, take place deformation of different degree. Maoping, Moping and Yangjiacao landslides that have been influenced by rising and falling repeatedly or reservoir water level were selected specially, and made monitor analysis and study of forecast models, because they have had bad stability, big deformation, dense population, potential harmfulness, possibility of hindering shipping, and imperiled safe of people’s life and property. 1 The method of statistical graph, the analytical method of bar shape of landslide body and the analogy method of environmental engineering geology were used to analyze the deformation of landslides. The quantitative analysis of date was combined with the geological analysis. The deformation characteristics of the surface and depth of landslides and main influenced factors(the rising and falling repeateddly of reservoir water level, the atmospheric rainfall and human engineering activities, karst earthquake that is induced by the reservoir, et al.)were analyzed synthetically.\;2 On the technical method of non\|linear building model, the traditional common calculation method of transformation that non\|linear calculation is changed to linear calculation was improved. Method Newton and method Marquardt of parametric estimation in optimizing mathematics and adjustment method of parameter in surveying were ingeniously and firstly used to optimize the parameter of forecast models of landslides, The accuracy of forecast models of landslides is raised. 3 The landslides deformation system that is QJ\|HPV3 0 applied software has been developed. Three kinds of function which may seek and select good models, build models of optimizing parameter, and automatically draw color graph can be combined with each other organically. These provide with beneficial experiment for the realization of automation of the monitor data processing of landslides.更多还原