【摘要】 研究网络层面的地震灾害风险评估模型和方法,对于提高电力系统的抗灾能力至关重要,而中国在这些方面的研究尚不完善。分析地震灾害的特点,提出考虑共因失效的电力系统地震灾害分析思路及理论框架;基于场地地震动值的估算方法,建立元件损坏概率模型;综合考虑网络结构和运行情况对电力系统抗震性能的影响,提出电力系统地震灾害风险评估算法和指标体系,并通过熵权综合评价各指标对节点抗灾能力的影响,计算出节点的综合灾害风险指标。实际电网算例验证说明:所提算法是切实可行的,能寻找系统的薄弱环节,有助于提高电网的抗震性能。更多还原

【Abstract】 Network’s risk-assessment model and method are crucial for improving power system’s safety under seismic disaster.The research in this field in China is still not perfect.Characteristics of seismic disaster were analyzed,and analysis method and theoretical framework of seismic disaster risk evaluation for power systems considering common cause failure were proposed.Element damage probability model was established based on ground shaking prediction method.Considering the influence of network structure and operation conditions,seismic disaster risk-evaluation algorithm and risk indices for power systems were proposed.Entropy weight was applied to evaluate the effects of indices on nodes’ anti-disaster ability and nodes’ comprehensive disaster-risk indices were calculated.The calculation examples of actual power systems show that the proposed algorithm is feasible and it can find system’s weak links,and this helps to improve the power grid’s anti-seismic performance.更多还原