【摘要】 在前人研究的基础上，建立了适合于重点监视区烈度预测的概率方法的数学模型，并对该模型中影响预测结果的因素进行了灵敏度分析。发现预测的不确定性主要来自烈度衰减规律。根据概率分析中对正态分布函数不确定性校正的原理，提出了适于重点监视区内烈度预测中不确定性的校正方法，并将该方法应用于河西重点监视区。在确定震级－频度关系的过程中，考虑了地震活动性周期及震级间隔两方面的因素，使得求出的震级－频度关系更为精确更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the previous studies,a new mathematical model is established, which is suitable for probabilistic method of predicting seismic intensity in key monitoring area. The sensitivities of the factors affecting prediction to the results are analysed.It is found that the intensity attenuation law plays an even more important role in bringing about the uncertainty. In the light of the principle of uncertainty correction for normal distribution function in seismic hazard analysis, an improved method to correct the uncertainty in intensity prediction is demonstrated and is applied in Hexi key monitoring area. Seismicity period and magnitude interval are taken into account to determine the magnitude frequency relation. Therefore,the relation secured in this paper may be more accurate.更多还原