【摘要】 在回顾近年对地震人员损失预测的研究工作的基础上,根据USGS的PAGER系统中地震人员损失回归模型,利用发生在1970-2008年间的128条地震现场调查灾害记录建立了我国东、西部区域适用的地震人员损失预测模型;并利用发生在1980-2007年间的234条地震损失记录建立了地震人员重伤数与人员死亡数的回归关系;最后利用模型对2008年四川汶川地震的人员损失进行评估计算,得到了与实际震害损失相接近的评估结果。更多还原

【Abstract】 Based on the review of researches on several models for earthquake casualty estimation in recent years,according to the empirical estimation model of PAGER system which is released by USGS in October,2007,two regional applicable earthquake casualty estimation models are developed using the loss records of 128 earthquakes from 1970 to 2008 in China.And using 234 earthquakes occurred from 1980 to 2007,a linear regression relationship between the number of the seriously injured and the number of death caused by earthquakes is established.At last,by comparing the estimation of casualty using the models with the actual number of victims in 2008 Wenchuan earthquake,it is proved that the model can make approximate estimation.更多还原