【摘要】 首先介绍了模糊Modular神经网络的原理、建模方法与仿真实验,然后利用该方法把一些常用的地震学指标作为神经网络的输入,未来50年最大震级则作为网络的期望输出,对官厅水库及邻区的地震活动进行学习与最大震级序列建模,进行危险性预测。通过分析,认为该方法在一定程度上具有学习、建模与外推预测泛化能力,具有很好的中长期地震危险性预测效果,可以作为中长期地震危险性分析的工具。更多还原

【Abstract】 Principium and method of the fuzzy Modular neural network are introduced in this paper. Firstly,the input samples and the output samples of the fuzzy Modular neural network are created by using history maximum magnitudes and the nextso year maximum magnitude in this paper. Secondly,building module and earthquake trend forecast of earthquake activity are be analyzed by the fuzzy Modular neural network method in Guanting reservoir and its around zone.更多还原