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两种新参数在银川—河套和祁连山—六盘山地震带地震预报中的应用研究
Study on Application of Two New Parameters to Earthquake Prediction in Yinchuan-Hetao and Qilian Mt.-Liupan Mt. Seismic Belts
【摘要】 采用极值理论求得岗贝尔分布b值,可以克服目前广泛使用的求b值的方法对资料要求高的弱点。根据中强地震发生前小震出现偏离泊松分布的现象,构造泊松分布符合度Yn值。将这两种参数具体应用于银川-河套地震带和祁连山-六盘山地震带进行预测检验。结果表明在两个区域岗贝尔分布b值和泊松分布符合度Yn值对中强地震映震效果均较好。
【Abstract】 Using the extreme value theory, b-value conforming to Gubmel distribution is caculated to replace normal b-value method,which needs higher quality data. According to the phenomenon that seismicity diverging Poisson distribution before moderate-strong earthquake, Poisson distribution coincident degree Y n-value is given .The new parameters then are applied in Yinchuan-Hetao and Qilian Mt.-Liupan Mt. seismic belts for prediction test.The result shows that the b-value and Y n-value are correlated well with moderate-strong earthquakes.
【关键词】 岗贝尔分布;
泊松分布符合度;
地震预报;
【Key words】 Gubmel distribution; Coincident degree of Poisson distribution; Earthquake prediction;
【Key words】 Gubmel distribution; Coincident degree of Poisson distribution; Earthquake prediction;
- 【文献出处】 西北地震学报 ,Northwestern Seismological Journal , 编辑部邮箱 ,2005年02期
- 【分类号】P315.75
- 【被引频次】1
- 【下载频次】89