【摘要】 将投影寻踪(PP)与高维时间序列分析结合起来,建立了地震PP综合预测模型.并选取祁连山地区作研究区,做了未来三个月内最大震级的短期预测.经展望式检验,合格率(预测误差≤0.5或≤10%)≥80%.文中根据实际需要提出建立一定震级门限(M≥4.0)的预测具有更好的效果.本预测模型还可增加自变量、维数和改变时间尺度,并运用到其他领域中.更多还原

【Abstract】 Combining Projection Pursuit(PP) and highdimensional time series analysis,the synthetic earthquake prediction model of highdimensional PP time series is built.Selecting Qilian mountain region as research object,its shortterm prediction model of the maximum magnitude within three months is made.The qualified rate of prediction test is more than 80% (Prediction error≤0.5 or ≤10%).In this paper,it is considered that the model with certain magnitude threshold (MS≥4.0) is better accordding to the real cases.It is available for the model to increase parameters,dimensions,change prediction periods,and generalize to prediction in other fields.更多还原