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磁暴月相二倍法的计算发震日期与全球M_S≥7.5大地震的对应关系

CORRESPONDING RELATION BETWEEN THE PREDICTED TIME INTERVALS FROM THE TWO-TIME METHOD OF MAGNETIC STORM RELATED TO LUNAR PHASE AND THE OCCURRENCE OF LARGE EARTHQUAKES (M_S≥7.5) OVER THE WORLD

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【作者】 沈宗丕徐道一张晓东汪成民

【Author】 SHEN Zongpi1, XU Daoyi2, ZHANG Xiaodong3, WANG Chengmin3(1. Sheshan Seismological Station, Shanghai Seismological Bureau,Shanghai201602,China; 2. Institute of Geology,CSB,Beijing100029,China; 3. Center for Analysis and Prediction,CSB,Beijing100036)

【机构】 上海地震局佘山地震台中国地震局地质研究所中国地震局分析预报中心中国地震局分析预报中心 上海 201602北京100029北京100036北京100036

【摘要】 应用磁暴月相二倍法对1998年5月~2001年1月期间全球发生的MS≥7.5大地震进行研究.在16次大地震中发生于磁暴月相二倍法得出的计算发震日期(±5天)有13次;在15次计算发震日期中有11次对应MS≥7.5大地震,2次对应7.0≤MS≤7.4地震.研究表明K指数大的起倍磁暴日与MS≥7.8特大地震的发生有较好的相关性,发生在月相的磁暴与MS≥7.5大地震相关关系较好.

【Abstract】 From May, 1998 to January, 2001, there were 16 large earthquakes (MS≥7.5) over the world. Based on the twotime method of magnetic storm related to lunar phase,15 earthquake corresponding time intervals (±5 days) can be computed, and among them 13 occurred in 11 computed time intervals.Meanwhile,other 2 computed time intervals,correspond to 2 earthquakes (7.0≤MS≤7.4).The research result shows that the first magnetic storm with large storm index (K) correlate to the occurrence of M≥7.8 large earthquake,and the magnetic storms occurred in the lunar phase demonstrate good correlation to the M≥7.5 large earthquakes.

【关键词】 磁暴月相地震预测
【Key words】 Magnetic stormLunar phaseEarthquake prediction
【基金】 国家863计划"地震预报智能决策支持系统"课题(863-306-ZT04-03-01)经费资助.
  • 【文献出处】 西北地震学报 ,Northwestern Seismological Journal , 编辑部邮箱 ,2002年04期
  • 【分类号】P315.7
  • 【被引频次】6
  • 【下载频次】137
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