【摘要】 分析了四川北部及川甘青交界地区强震活动的基本格架和特点.指出区内强震活动主要受北东向分布带所控制.对北东向分布带分期活动特点及区域特征的分析表明,研究区未来几年将处于中强震活动水平.结合强震发生后安全区及安全期统计关系,认为茂汶—北川—汶川及大邑—天全—宝兴地区是未来几年可能发生中强震的非安全区.礼县—天水—武山一带也需予以注意.更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to study the fundamental pattern and feature of moderately strong earthquakes in the north of Sichuan Province and its vicinity,the division of seismicity periods and feature of earth- quake migration of north-east seismic belt in the studied region were analyzed.It is pointed out that seismicity were mainly attributed to north-east seismic belt in the studied region.It is consid- ered that there will be possibility of the occurrence of M≥6 earthquakes in the regions of Maowen-Beichuan-Wenchuan,Dayi-Tianquan-Baoxing and Lixian-Tianshui-Wushan in the com- ing years.更多还原