【摘要】 为充分利用表征煤矿地表沉陷灾害特征的沉降量这一数据信息,采用灰色Compertz(龚伯兹曲线)模型对其进行预测,同时提高预测精度,实现对地表沉陷灾害的早期识别和预警。以地表沉降量观测数据为依据,根据沉降量变化非线性特征,构建灰色理论与Compertz耦合的预测模型。以样本数据预测误差最小为原则,构建煤矿区地表沉陷灾害特征值预测模型。以金竹山土朱矿为实例进行应用,利用灰色Compertz预测模型对87个地面观测点沉陷特征数据进行分析和预测。结果表明,预测值与实际观测值拟合度高,精度等级达到了一级,预测结果可靠。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to make full use of subsidence disaster characteristics data information of surface subsidence characterization in coal minning area,the grey Compertz model is adopted to carry out predicting subsidence disaseer and to improve prediction accuracy. Based on surface subsidence observation data,according to non-linear characteristics of ground subsidence,a coupling prediction model combining grey theory and Compertz is built. A prediction model of the characteristic value of subsidence disaster is built on the basis of principle of minimum sample data of prediction errors in a coal mine. With application of the characteristics data from 87 observation points for ground subsidence in Tuzhu mine,the characteristic value of surface subsidence disaster is analyzed and predicted using grey Compertz forecasting model in coal mine. The researched results show that fitting degree between predicted values and actual values is high,the predicted precision rank has reached level I and prediction results are reliable.更多还原