【摘要】 为克服滑坡危险度评价中因子边界划分不确定性和因子权重的主观性问题,引入模糊证据权法,对汶川震区岷江流域雁门乡至映秀段,进行滑坡发生后验概率计算。采用修正后验概率模型,来满足模糊证据权法中证据层间的条件独立性假设,以提高预测结果精度。最后按照预测的滑坡点数,完成研究区滑坡危险度区划。通过与野外实际踏勘数据对比,结果显示:75.24%的已知滑坡点处于修正后验概分级中等危险度以上。表明模糊证据权方法,可较为客观准确地对地震滑坡危险度进行区划,适用于预测以自然因素为主导的事件发生概率。更多还原

【Abstract】 To overcome the problem of uncertainty of boundary division and subjectivity weights in traditional method,the fuzzy weight of evidence model has been innovatively introduced to calculate the landslide probability.In order to improve the prediction precision,modified posterior probability model has been used to meet the condition of independent for evidence layers in the fuzzy weight of evidence model.And then,based on the landslide prediction number,landslide zoning for Minjiang River,Yanmen to Yingxiu reach,in Wenchuan,has been made.By contrasting with the field investigated data,the results showed that 75.24% known landslide points at the level of upper second class in the landslide zonation map.The application indicates that this method is suitable for predicting the occurrence probability of events caused by natural factors with an objective and accurate zonation of landslide risk.更多还原