【摘要】 福岛核事故发生后,我国要求开展外部事件对核电厂影响的评价,"十二五"核安全规划要求2015年之前开展外部事件概率安全分析工作。地震是需要重点评价的外部事件之一,而地震易损性分析是地震概率安全评价(SPSA)的一项重要内容,易损性分析模型是地震易损性分析的基础。本文介绍了地震易损性的概念,研究了美国核管会(NRC)和电力研究院(EPRI)推荐的地震易损性模型,并从数学上对该模型进行推导。给出易损性模型的应用实例,讨论随机性和不确定性对易损度的影响。结果表明,进行易损性分析时,需拥有丰富的知识和经验,以减少不确定性,使得到的分析结果更接近实际。更多还原

【Abstract】 After the Fukushima nuclear accident,the impact evaluation of nuclear power plants resulted from external events is required in China,and the 12th Five-Year Plan for Nuclear Safety also demands that the probability safety assessment of external events shall be developed before 2015.The earthquake is one of the most important external events which are essentially evaluated,and the seismic fragility is a key element in seismic PSA,while the fragility model is the basis of seismic fragility analysis.In this paper,the concept of seismic fragility was introduced,the seismic fragility model recommended by NRC and EPRI was studied,and the fragility model was derived.Then,the application example of the fragility model was given,and the effects of fragility due to randomness and uncertainty were discussed.The results show that a wealth of knowledge and experience is useful for the fragility analysis,which would reduce the uncertainty and gain access to practice.更多还原