【摘要】 降雨和地震是滑坡发生的主要诱发因素,且二者均具有很大的不确定性。四川雅安峡口地区为地震烈度VII度区,但地震活动较频繁,另外降雨量及地下水位随季节变化大,滑坡诱发作用强烈且具有明显的不确定性,研究诱发因素的不确定性对边坡可靠性而言至关重要。从静力学角度改进了基于Monte-Carlo法和剩余推力法的边坡可靠性分析方法,使地下水和地震力的随机性得到了考虑。综合考虑岩土体物理力学参数、地震力及地下水的随机性,以四川雅安峡口滑坡为研究对象,进行了多随机因素影响下的边坡可靠性分析。分析表明:地下水位随机性及降雨量变化对边坡可靠性影响较大,而地震随机性对边坡可靠性影响不大,但是地震力的存在对于边坡稳定系数的影响明显。更多还原

【Abstract】 Rainfall and earthquake,both of which are of great uncertainty,are two of the most principal factors for landslides.Seismic activity is frequent in Xiakou area,Ya’an,Sichuan,although this area is located in the VII zone of seismic intensity.Furthermore,rainfall and groundwater table in Xiakou area sharply vary with seasons.Triggered effect on landslides is consequently strong and stochastic.Studies on the randomness of triggered foctors are crucial for the slope reliability.The method for the slope reliability anlysis based on Monte-Carlo method and residual thrust method is improved statically to take the randomness of groundwater and seismic force into account.Considering the randomness of mechanical parameters of slope,seismic forces and pressures of groundwater,the reliability analysis on Xiakou slope is conducted to quantify the contribution of triggered factors to the reliability of Xiakou slope.Analytical results show that randomness of groundwater table has a strong effect on the slope reliability.On the contrary,effect of randomness of earthquakes on the slope reliability is weak.However,seismic forces have a great influence on the stability factor of slopes.更多还原