【摘要】 为了预测风化岩质隧道围岩–初支系统的失稳险情,结合具体工程实践,采用系统工程科学理论和非线性科学的灰色尖点突变理论,根据系统协调性变化趋势判断其稳定性的原理,对围岩–初支系统的拱顶沉降和洞周边墙变形收敛值的现场监测数据进行平滑处理和一次累加生成变换,进行围岩–初支系统的拱顶沉降与洞周边墙的变形收敛值之比与距初支时间的多项式回归拟合,建立一个围岩–初支系统的灰色尖点突变失稳预测模型,对围岩–初支系统的失稳时间进行预测。研究结果表明:可通过建立围岩–初支系统的灰色突变失稳预测模型分析系统协调性的发展趋势,判断其稳定性;获得围岩–初支系统失稳的临界时间和系统失稳的前后时间差,准确地对围岩–初支系统失稳过程(包括临界状态)进行预警预报。更多还原

【Abstract】 In order to forecast the destabilization and dangerous situation of surrounding rock of weathered rock tunnel and primary support system,combining with a practical engineering of shallow-buried tunnel,according to the principle of evaluating system stability with the variable tendency of its compatibility,with measured displacement data being smoothly processed and forecasted data being generated after once accumulation again,a grey-cusp-catastrophic destabilization prediction model of surrounding rock and primary support system is established by applying scientific theory of systems engineering and grey-cusp-catastrophe theory in nonlinear science;and then,the relation between the ratio of vault settlement to the deformation convergence of side wall around tunnel and time after primary support is fitted by polynomial regression;and the destabilization time of surrounding rock-primary support system is predicted by the grey-cusp-catastrophic destabilization prediction model.Furthermore,the destabilization and dangerous situation of surrounding rock and primary support system under the condition of steady rainfall are analyzed.The research results are shown as follows.Firstly,the stability of the surrounding rock and primary support system may be judged from analyzing the variable tendency of its compatibility with the grey-cusp-catastrophic destabilization prediction model.Secondlyt,he critical time and time difference of system destabilization may be more accurately derived.Moreover,the destabilization process including the critical state of the system may be accurately forewarned and forecasted by the established grey-cusp-catastrophic prediction model.更多还原