【摘要】 从失效可能性和失效后果两个方面对管道地震风险评价的现状进行了总结,提出了新的计算方法和模型。通过计算管体应变超越管道允许应变的概率来获得地震引起管道失效的可能性,采用统计管道事故平均失效后果的方法进行后果分析,并通过计算获得了某输油管道沿线地震风险分布的量化值。该方法可用于指导管道抗震设计和管道运行期间的风险管理。更多还原

【Abstract】 Earthquake risk evaluation actualities for oil and gas pipelines are summarized from failure probability and failure concequence,and new calculation method and model are presented.Failure probability of pipeline induced by earthquake can be obtained through computing the probobility exceeded allawable stain of pipeline for stain of pipe body.Statistical method for mean failure concequence of pipeline accidents is applied to concequence analysis,and the quantitative value for earthquake risk distribution along pipeline is obtained through computing method,which can be used in guiding pipeline aseismic design and risk management for pipeline during operation.更多还原